Disclaimer: The writer is not a Financial Advisor, and this article is not investment advice. The information is written for educational and entertainment purposes only. The writer owns only a fraction of a Bitcoin for experimental purposes. BTC markets are highly volatile and risky in nature. DYOR before making any investment decision, rather than listening to a stranger over the Internet.
Bitcoin is holding the lines and found strong support at 55 MA on the weekly time-frame. There will be more details on the weekly time-frame later in this article after some brief highlights of the monthly TF.
Monthly:
Bitcoin remains stable on monthly TF. There is interim support at $8,600. However, Bitcoin is facing immense selling pressure at $10,000. There is a resistance order-block spanning $10,100 – $10,750, which is a major obstacle for BTC. There have been three unsuccessful attempts by BTC to cross this level since Oct 2019. Another failed attempt was in Feb 2020 and most recently in May 2020. A monthly close above could be very positive for BTC and could pave the way towards $14,000, a close above which could propel BTC to new highs.
Weekly:
BTC price is holding at 55-MA (yellow line) for almost four weeks. On the weekly TF, BTC has established a range between $9,650 and $8,700. With 55-MA as support around $8,700, there is a selling order-block just above the upper range spanning $10,150 and $10,350. BTC has massive support on the downsides: the 21-MA ($8,278, green line), and more notably 144-MA ($7,673, red line). An order-block is also providing cover between $7,800 – 6,800 if BTC drops lower.
The range-bound weeks are waiting times. A close above $9,650 is more likely to be followed by the upsides. However, caution is advised since there is an overhead resistance order-block. On the flip-side, a weekly close below $8,700 could force BTC to drop towards the next available line of support.
MVRV Z-Score:
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is a new metric that is quite useful in analyzing the price movements and predicting long term price cycles. It is simply a ratio of market cap vs realized cap, where the former is calculated by multiplying the closing price by the current supply. The realized value considers the prices differently and instead of relying on the closing price, it computed the aggregate price according to the time when the coin was last moved. The z-value is the ratio of the difference between the market value and realized value divided by the standard deviation of the market value.
The graph below explains it further:
As illustrated, a z-value of below 0 indicates the beginning of a new cycle. As the score expands, a high value of 7-8 indicates a potential top
Conclusion:
BTC remains relatively stable and fluctuating between $9,650 and $8,700, a $950 slot. The next move is critical since it will establish the future route BTC will take. A break above the above-mentioned order-block on weekly and monthly warrants upsides in the upcoming weeks. However, a drop below could further strengthen the dominant, mildly bearish trend of printing lower-lows and lower-highs noticeable since Aug 2019.
Disclaimer: The writer is not a Financial Advisor, and this article is not investment advice. The information is written for educational and entertainment purposes only. The writer owns only a fraction of a Bitcoin for experimental purposes. BTC markets are highly volatile and risky in nature. DYOR before making any investment decision, rather than listening to a stranger over the Internet.
