Nothing has changed much since the last technical analysis of BTC. The bulls tried to stage a rally from $5,750 but it was sold off heavily at $8,500 where a confluence of 50-Weekly MA and 61.8 Fibonacci Level of the previous swing high provided an attractive price for the bears.
The 50-week MA in the chart above, was a strong support in the past but broken down in May 2018, the price rejection at that level indicates it will continue acting as a strong resistance in the future. During this entire rally from $5,755 to $8,500, BTC gained a solid $2,745 but Altcoin continued to bleed heavily indicating that no new money was entering the market and BTC gained at the expense of the Altcoins instead. A major part of the entire move was fueled by the ETF application by CBOE. SEC postponed the decision until Sep 30, 2018. This news accelerated the selling pressure and $6,800 support level was breached without any significant resistance by the bulls.
Now looking at the future:
On a smaller timeframe, the price can have a pullback before it continues to go down. See the chart for a possible scenario:
The bigger picture:
The downtrend is likely to continue for the entire crypto market and BTC is expected to drop to a new low in 2018. The historic $6,000 support level has been tested three times and the fourth time is unlikely to hold. Below $5,700, a wave of accelerated selling is likely to ensue as BTC drops to new lows of 2018 with a strong support level around $5,000. The price between $4,500-$3,000 is likely to be a capitulation phase of the entire crypto market. However, the entire phase will be painfully slow, with minimal volatility and many price pullbacks until BTC finds an absolute bottom. The waves can also turn rapidly by any strong fundamental news such as approval of an ETF by the SEC.
Cryptoriate will keep you posted. Happy Trading!
Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an investment advise and published for educational purposes only. BTC markets are highly volatile and risky in nature. DYOR before making any investment decision rather than listening to a stranger over the internet.
