Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an investment advice and published for educational purposes only. BTC markets are highly volatile and risky in nature. DYOR before making any investment decision rather than listening to a stranger over the Internet.
Bitcoin remains in the downtrend and there is little probability of finding a bottom any time soon. The lack of interest from buyers is making it difficult to predict what is going to happen in the future and at what level we can expect a change in sentiment. There is no point trying to catch an absolute bottom. I would suggest leaving it to the pros and staying out of the market until there are clear signs of a reversal. Many other digital assets are ready to start an uptrend but uncertainties surrounding BTC is a key hurdle holding those assets back. Until some majors, such as BTC, ETH, and LTC, stabilize, the entire crypto market will keep losing value.
Now let’s dig into the BTC price analysis:
This weekly chart shows 200 MA (Pink Line), 200 EMA (Red Line) and Fibs drawn from the low of $222 in 2011 to the high $19,666 in 2017.
BTC lost the key support around $6K in Nov 2018 and dropped by almost 50% to the low of $3,122 on Bitstamp. It bounced off and rammed into $4,000-4,300 region where the confluence of 200 EMA on weekly and 78.6% Fib acted as strong resistance. After reaching the high of $4,326 on Bitstamp, it fell off $4K and now trading around $3,400. There is an argument of $3,000 support level but I do not see it holding for much longer. There were many “analysts” calling for a retest of $6K, this time as a resistance, but there is not enough buying pressure for that. I highlighted $4,300 as a key resistance in my analysis on 3rd Dec 2018 which BTC failed to surpass. Now BTC has printed a major resistance block around $4,000-4,300, highlighted in red on the above chart. A break above this block will push BTC higher to retest $5800-6,100 but I do not see this happening soon.
If BTC sinks below $3,000, the key levels below are $2,250, $1,900 and $1,150. If at any point of time, BTC goes below $1,000, there will be little hope it will give investment returns as glorious as witnessed in Dec 2017.
Wrapping Up:
BTC remains in the downtrend and patience is advised at this level. It can lose another 50% from the current level which is why extreme patience is required. This is a time to simply observe the market than catching the falling knife.
