Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an investment advice and published for educational purposes only. BTC markets are highly volatile and risky in nature. DYOR before making any investment decision rather than listening to a stranger over the Internet.
According to the most recent TA on 24 Nov 2018, BTC was facing resistance at 78.6% Fib level. The chart also highlighted an order block and the potential bounce between $ 3500-3000. BTC dropped as low as $3,447 and produced a bounce to $4,400.
This is a chart from the most recent TA:
Before any further analysis, there are some interesting findings. While sifting through various websites to study BTC, the trading volume in different currencies showed an unusual pattern in BTC-KRW (South Korean Won) before BTC plummeted to $3,500.
Let me blow your mind:
(The following charts are gathered from cryptocompare.com)
This picture shows BTC one-year trading volume: USD vs Top Currencies. As illustrated, the green at the bottom is US Dollar (USD), red is Tether (USDT), Blue is Japanese Yen (JPY), yellow is Euro (EUR) and the green at the top is (: drumroll:) South Korean Won (KRW). Do you notice the BTC-KRW unusual volume spike in October- November as highlighted?
Here are some more screenshots:
The KWR never registered more than 15% trading volume against USD as mostly remained below 10%. On 07 Oct 2018, just one day before the volume spike, it was only 3.71% and then spiked. The following zoomed in screenshot spans 01 Oct- 18 Nov 2018. The highest volume was recorded on 05 Nov, a massive 44.01%.
The highest volume percentage on 05 Nov 2018:
There are two major exchanges offering BTC-KRW pairs: Bithumb and Korbit. There was a volume spike on Bitmumb but none on Korbit which means the former was used to do the deed.
Let’s link the volume spike in BTC-KRW with the price of BTC-USD between 07 Oct- 12 Nov 2018.
The price was wedged between $6,250- 6,500 for the most part during that time, the lowest level of volatility in price action was also observed. BTC dropped to $5,324 on 14 Nov, a drop of almost $1,000 and only a day after BTC-KRW trading volume went back to usual. Strange?
There is a range of possibilities behind this including manipulation, insider trading, etc. but I won’t go into further details here. I only wanted it to bring into the readers’ attention.
Coming back to BTC TA:
BTC bounced off $3,500 and halted against 78.6% Fib at $4,328 (these fibs are drawn from 2015 low of $152 to 2017 high of $19,666) and struggling to go beyond. This bounce is merely a retracement of the recent price drop which dragged the price from $6,500 to $3,475in 10 days, a loss of almost 50%. Ironic!
BTC is poised to go lower in the future. It is difficult to speculate on the bottom price, there will be some tell-tale signs when it reaches close to an absolute bottom.
Looking at the D1 on Bitstamp:
BTC is facing stiff resistance at $4,330, an interim resistance can also be found at $4,250. As mentioned earlier that this is probably a retracement after the drop from $6,500 to $3,500, the retracement can go higher but the maximum it can go up to is between $5,200 and $5,500 as highlighted by the red block. This could only happen if $4,330 is taken out which is a hard resistance to break at this point but not impossible.
The price can also go lower, and $3,500- 3,000 is the block to observe with interim support at $3,950 and $3,700.
Moving on to H4 Timeframe:
The Visible Range indicator shows a gap between $4,600 and $5,200, further strengthen my argument of price could attempt to reach around $5,000 in the short term. It is highly probable if BTC manages to break above $4,330 with high buying volume.
