Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an investment advise and published for educational purposes only. BTC markets are highly volatile and risky in nature. DYOR before making any investment decision rather than listening to a stranger over the internet.
In my recent analysis on 9 Aug, I presented the most likely scenario and highlighted the maximum possible retrace and see how freakishly accurate it was. It does not matter whether a market is manipulated or not, or who controls it; a good technical analysis can provide a right direction and the most likely scenarios.
Short Term scenario:
The price was limited to $6623 and dropped to $5858 on Bitfinex; however, the way bulls defended $6,000 level, unexpectedly for the fourth time, proved that they are strong enough to provide a significant resistance and there are some perma-bulls alive; the price went as high as $6,647 on Aug 15 but rapidly pushed back, owing to the stiff selling pressure. BTC is struggling to cross $6,500-$6,650 and it has been ten days the price has been ranging between $6250- $6500. The bulls have repeatedly tried to break $6,500 but pushed back hard by the aggressive selling pressure. The H4 time frame is printing an expanding triangle pattern which can break in either direction. This is a no trading area until a break out in either direction. The bias remains bearish.
If BTC breaks above $6,600 with conviction, a rally up to $7,500 (maximum) is possible but this scenario is less likely to happen than a decisive break below $6,000. If it drops below $6K, a new wave of panic selling will follow dragging BTC to new lows of 2018, and a start of capitulation phase for BTC.
Long Term Scenario:
BTC is still in a downtrend and there is nothing bullish about $6K holding strong. There are many paid groups who are arguing upsides and new ATH for BTC, they are simply wrong and selling you hopium. There is nothing bullish about BTC at this time and any rally will be met with strong selling pressure. BTC needs a lower and more attractive price tag for institutional investors to buy and accumulate. The price range between $4,500- $3,000 is most likely to be an accumulation phase as per my analysis.
My next post will be a detailed analysis of potential support and resistance levels.
Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an investment advise and published for educational purposes only. BTC markets are highly volatile and risky in nature. DYOR before making any investment decision rather than listening to a stranger over the internet.
